By Louise Blas - Loading & Prospective Watch in Plaine Images
Industry dependence on digital distribution platforms has never been so strong. Steam reigns supreme in the PC market, dictating the rules of an ecosystem in which publishers and studios must learn to sail to survive. This relationship, as beneficial as it is in terms of visibility, raises the question of the predictability of sales, in particular through the flagship indicator of Wishlists.
The recent data collected by Gamediscoverco on Steam outings from August to October 2024 could question some certainties on the conversion of sales wishlists. More modest than expected, the median is around 10.5 % for the first week, suggesting a monthly rate of around 13-14 %. Even more worrying, the differences are quickly widening: the games located in the 75th percentile only converted 4.8 %, while those of the 90th percentile caps up to a meager 1.9 %.
A trompe-l'oeil success indicator
However, some titles challenge statistics. Some of the great successes of 2024, like Dragon Ball Sparking! Zero or Dragon Age: The Veilguard show indeed that a combination of deductible notoriety and careful execution can generate exceptional conversion rates. Others, such as Liar's Bar or Karate Survivor , have benefited from an unexpected virality thanks to streamers, proving that the success of a title does not only depend on the volume of wishes.
These data underline an implacable reality: the video game market is more than ever guided by hits. In 2024, the five largest successes on Steam generated $ 2.22 billion alone. Faced with this concentration of income and the increased competition of older games sold at a reduced price, studios must undoubtedly rethink their approach to wishlists, no longer as an absolute indicator of success, but as an element among others to take into account in their launch strategy.
